Sunday, 22 October, 2017

United Kingdom left behind in International Monetary Fund global economic growth upgrade

Treasurer Scott Morrison SHARE Share on Facebook SHARE Share on Twitter TWEET Link
Howard Terry | 11 October, 2017, 00:27

Its latest World Economic Outlook predicts strengthening economic growth globally, building on healthy data from the first half of 2017.

The IMF said that it expects India's economy to grow by 6.7% in 2017, slower than the 7.2% it had forecast in April, due to the lingering impact of the government's sudden demonetization past year and a newly introduced goods and services tax.

Releasing the report in Washington, IMF Research Director Maurice Obstfeld said: "The global recovery is continuing, and at a faster pace".

"Growth in most of the other advanced economies, with the notable exception of the United Kingdom, picked up in the first half of 2017 from its pace in the second half of 2016, with both domestic and external demand contributing". The upward revisions in its growth forecasts including for the euro area, Japan, China, emerging Europe, and Russian Federation more than offset downward revisions for the United States, the United Kingdom, and India.

International Monetary Fund boosted the global GDP growth forecast for the current calendar year 2017 by 10 basis points to 3.6%.

The IMF said for 2017, most of its upgrade owes to brighter prospects for the advanced economies, whereas for 2018's positive revision, emerging market and developing economies play a relatively bigger role.

"The Philippine economy is expected to grow by 6.6 percent this year before quickening to 6.8 percent in 2018 as public sector infrastructure spending gains pace while domestic consumption and exports remain buoyant", AMRO lead economist Sumio Ishikawa said in a statement.

Roughly 75% of the world's economy is sharing in the acceleration, a broader recovery than any in a decade, the agency said, MarketWatch reported. This is a concern because policy makers may not have enough ammunition to fight the next downturn, the International Monetary Fund said.

Inflation is too low in many countries.

The IMF said while the government was committed to reducing its fiscal deficit from 9 percent of GDP in 2016, its cash deficit would remain "elevated" as government arrears were cleared.

Elsewhere in Asia, the fund raised Japan's growth forecast to 1.5 per cent this year from 1.0 per cent last year.

The Fund had already cut its 2017 forecast by 0.3 percentage points in July from April and left its latest forecast unchanged.

IMF's 6.7 percent growth rate projection is in line with the Reserve Bank of India's forecast.

"The welcome cyclical upturn after disappointing growth over the past few years provides an ideal window of opportunity to undertake critical reforms, thereby staving off downside risks and raising potential output and standards of living more broadly".

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