Wednesday, 23 August, 2017

Two spots show high chance for tropical development

6-16 Tropical A look at the two Atlantic systems as of Friday morning
Howard Terry | 20 June, 2017, 00:46

Both areas of disturbance have a high chance of tropical development. Potential tropical cyclone two is east of the Winward Islands, while another area is near the Yucatan Peninsula.

The area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico early this week.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Monday. While forecasts do call for it reaching tropical storm strength over the next few days, when it reaches the Caribbean, high wind shear and generally unfavorable conditions are expected to dissipate the storm rather quickly.

As the storm system tracks north, it'll bring a heavy rain and flooding threat to a large portion of the Gulf Coast. Both are expected to continue developing over the next five days.

Tropical development has been quick to come to center stage this weekend as two separate areas in the Atlantic Basin are holding the potential for development.

On Monday or Tuesday, a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form. "That's something that we are fairly certain is going to happen, regardless of how strong the system gets and which track it ultimately takes". On the other hand if the storm jogs more west, Florida may not see any influence on our weather at all.

One forecast model showing very heavy to extreme rainfall forecast for this week along the Gulf Coast region.

Storm warnings have been issued for Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and the cost of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

In NWS terminology, a tropical cyclone refers to a closed, low-level circulation system of clouds and thunderstorms originating over tropical or subtropical water. It is now producing 40 miles per hour sustained winds as it moves west at 23 miles per hour.

A low pressure system entering the Gulf of Mexico is likely to form into Tropical Storm Bret early this week.

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