Monday, 24 July, 2017

BJP confident of victory in UP

Manipur witnesses record 86 pc polling The elections in Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa are taking place mid-way through the five-year
Sammy Stanley | 10 March, 2017, 00:30

Exit polls by various news channels and survey agencies have indicated a rout for the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance in Punjab, with most projecting single-digit seats for the ruling combine.

The leaders that crossed over to the BJP included several Congress heavyweights including former chief minister Vijay Bahuguna, former leader of opposition Harak Singh Rawat, former state Congress president Yashpal Arya etc.

It would be now interesting to see, which party will form the government when the Election Commission will announce the result on March 11.

The BJP is projected to get 33.4 per cent of all votes followed by the SP-Congress (32.3), the BSP (24.3) and "Others" 10 per cent. In Goa, the BJP is likely to retain power, while in Manipur, it is unclear whether the Hindu-nationalist party can form government, polls said.

The ruling Congress had won 15 of the 22 seats in the last Assembly elections.

The India Today-Axis exit polls has predicted a massive victory for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh where it has been projected to win between 251-279 seats.

The India News/MRC poll puts the Congress and AAP neck and neck at 55 seats each.

The India TV-CVoter exit poll predicted 155-167 seats for the BJP, 135-147 for the Samajwadi-Congress alliance and 81-93 for the BSP. It also says the Akali-BJP alliance will be trounced with only 19 to 27 seats.

The hardest part of putting together polls in India is finding a way to take estimated vote shares, which are relatively easier to sample, and turn those into projected seat shares.

While the BJP camp began chest thumping following the predictions by exit polls, the Congress adopted a policy of wait and watch. Meanwhile even at this late stage with the exit polls, (barring MRC Newsx giving AAP 7 seats) not being favourable to AAP, it will influence the final results in at least ten seats.

The Congress chief ministerial candidate had earlier, on the occasion of the launch of his authorised biography, said that his own gut feeling, based on his political experience, suggested that the party would secure between 62 and 65 seats.

The 2017 assembly polls in Manipur were conducted under the shadow of the continuing economic blockade and the resultant violence in the North-Eastern state.

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